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Sunday 14 March 2010

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Saturday, 13th March 2010

34 percent think a hung parliament is in the country’s best interests

David Blackburn 7:38pm

Tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph contains the latest ICM poll. It would be news if the Tory lead didn’t contract. It has not done so. Labour remain unchanged at 31 percent, the Liberals are up three on 21 percent and the Tories down two to 38 percent.

The Liberals have made gains recently. Therefore, it is no surprise that a growing minority want a hung parliament - 34 percent according to this poll.

I do not understand this impulse. Coalition and co-operation are laudable but, as the care row proves, fanciful aims. The Tories are losing support to...

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If the Lib Dems could hold the balance of power in the next parliament, then they should be subject to the same level of scrutiny as the two major parties

James Forsyth 7:10pm

With another poll showing the Tories short of the lead they need to be sure of a majority—ICM for the Sunday Telegraph has the Tories on 38, Labour on 31 and the Lib Dems on 21—we are going to hear even more about a hung parliament and the role of the Lib Dems; I can’t remember any Lib Dem leader getting as much media attention as Nick Clegg has had these past four days. But if the Lib Dems are a potential party of government, then they should be a subject to a...

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McMillan-Scott makes no impression

David Blackburn 3:30pm

Edward McMillan-Scott fights a lone and determined battle. Timing his defection for maximum destruction, McMillan-Scott characterises the Tory party in the style of Orwell’s Big Brother. He told the LidDem spring conference:

"People are controlled within the Conservative party, as I was.”

It is a common charge, but, because the Tory leadership currently resembles Channel Four’s Big Brother, it doesn’t stick.

Consequently, McMillan-Scott sounds shrill. He accuses David Cameron of ‘propitiating extremism abroad’, a charge usually reserved for Abu-Hamza, and condemns Cameron as being ‘committed to power for its...

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Cameron's Osborne comments are far from helpful to the Tory cause

James Forsyth 1:28pm

I must admit I am baffled as to why David Cameron has chosen now as the moment to reopen the question of under what circumstances he would move George Osborne from his job as shadow Chancellor. The Times reports that Cameron says in his interview with Sir Trevor McDonald that he has talked to Osborne “a number of times” about moving him.

This isn’t the first time that Cameron hasdiscussed publicly the possibility of having to sack his good friend. But the timing is particularly unhelpful considering that the Labour party...

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Germany, where art thou?

Daniel Korski 12:07pm

It is more than 100 days since Guido Westerwelle became Germany’s foreign minister and the questions about Germany’s diplomatic introspection remain. They may have even grown and are becoming problematic for Berlin’s allies.

Chancellor Schröder appeared to follow a Sonderweg, a philosophy that saw Berlin move away from old notions of peacemaking and away from old alliances, such as that with the United States. At times, he seemed to want a new axis between Paris, Berlin, and Moscow, making Germany a go-between between East and West, a kind of post-modern...

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Brown's latest confidence trick

Fraser Nelson 10:01am

One of the Brownie's we've been hearing recently from the Dear Leader is that it is in some way ambitious to "halve the deficit by 2014". It's a Brownie because it is technically accurate, yet designed to mislead the voter. Two years ago, he forecast no deficit at all by 2014. Now he's projecting one of 5 percent of GDP - simply mammoth - and still makes out that this is something to be proud of. It's a confidence trick: the voter is supposed to think 'I don't know about the figures, but if he's boasting about it then it must...

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Friday, 12th March 2010

The Tories won't need a majority to have a majority in the House

James Forsyth 7:22pm

If we are going to spend so much time talking about the possibility of a hung parliament, it is worth noting that you don’t actually need 324 MPs to have a majority in the Commons. As John Rentoul reminds us, Sinn Fein MPs do not take their seats as they refuse to recognise the legitimacy of the Westminster parliament. (Although, in one of the many concessions to Sinn Fein that turn the stomach they are still allowed to have offices in the Commons and claim a salary and expenses) There are currently 5 Sinn Fein MPs and the polls in Northern Ireland indicate that they might...

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The Tories should ignore Byrne’s tax fantasy

David Blackburn 6:01pm

Liam Byrne told The Daily Politics yesterday that Labour would reduce the deficit without raising additional taxation to that which is already planned. Iain Martin describes this pledge as being akin to a chocolate fireguard. He’s right. It’s less realistic than a Jeffrey Archer novel. As Andrew Neil notes, Labour plans to reduce £82bn from the deficit by 2014 with £19bn in tax rises and £38bn in cuts. They bank on economic growth eradicating the remaining £25bn. The government’s optimism for Britain’s economic prospects is touching but scarcely credible on the basis...